Top 5 games of the week

Aaron Rodgers squares off against the Dallas Cowboys in our top game of the week

The following are the most intriguing games of week 3 in the NFL. Oz in black, Clay in blue.

5. Car @ MInn (-3.5)

Carolina is 2-0, Minnesota is 0-2. A pesky team with a knack for winning vs. a tough team with a knack for losing tough games. Seems like an easy pick. I may be inclined to move this game up to first if we were doing a "most intriguing game of the week." The Panthers never lost faith and overcame a 14-point deficit to win 20-17; Minnesota couldn't punch the ball into the endzone even once in five tries inside the 30 yard line against the Colts. I thought after I heard the Colts ended up winning, "shit, if the Vikings can put it together and actually score touchdowns they are going to be tough to beat." Think about it. If the Vikings go up 14-0, continue to play great defense (can we call the defense against GB "great"?), and just pound the ball with the best back in football, they'll win lots of games. Then, they decide to put Gus Frerotte at quarterback for the rest of the season.

We've been doing these picks now for three years; we've been watching football together for about eight season now. Every time I type Gus Frerotte's name, I think it may be the last time. Yet, he's proved me wrong every year. I don't agree with this move at this critical juncture. The Vikings need to win this game. Can Frerotte take them over the edge of being on the brink of a top contender or keep them as a possible playoff team? I'm convinced the Vikings won't be a playoff team if they lose this game.

Carolina (+3.5)

Gus Ferotte, I had to type it too, and they answer is yes, and no I guess. He is not the answer and I think they could be done. Terrible move. At least Jackson was a threat to run the ball, and got some first downs with his legs. They have a great run defense and a very good overall defense, possibly the best back in the NFL, and they can’t win. Granted they had a tough schedule to start, but this isn’t any easier. Carolina should be able to shut the offense down by stacking the box and making Gus beat them. There probably won’t be much scoring here either. I can’t see Carolina getting much on the ground, but Steve Smith is back and this Panthers team seems to have that IT thing this year. Two come from behind wins so far against good teams (I can’t believe I am calling the Bears a good team) and this one won’t be easy, getting more then a field goal in a game they can win with little scoring is easy for me.

Oh yeah, and with the games on the schedule this week, 5 isn’t a bad ranking, all the shitty teams play each other and the good teams play each other, which makes for a tough betting week.

Carolina +3.5

4. NO @ Denver (-5.5)

I'm taking the over in this game. I'm also taking the points. I don't think the Broncos are a touchdown better than the Saints. I don't even care if they're playing at home.

New Orleans +5.5

I don’t know. No Colston worries me here. No one is going to play defense, and yes, the over should be easy. I really hope the Broncos aren’t good, but they look it so far. Is Cutler the real deal? Could this game easily come down to the last possession? I guess the truth is that neither team will be able to stop the other’s offense on the final drive, so you’re right, take the points. Can we figure out what is up with Brandon Marshall? Do you think he finished his best season ever last year, finally felt like a star and went out and tried to break as many laws as possible in the offseason? Does he get suspended for beating up a chick now? What an idiot.

New Orleans +5.5

3. Jax @ Indy (-5.5)

The changing of the guard is taking place in the AFC South. How does Indianapolis qualify as the south? I've driven through the city; it's not the south. The freaking highway is named after the r&b singer, Babyface. I wish I were making that up. What qualifies having a highway named after you? A couple crappy love songs? Why doesn't Bret Michaels from Poison have his own highway? What about John Denver? He was awesome! He won the country music award for newcomer of the year, for God's sake! You're telling me Peyton Manning doesn't know every one of his songs by heart? I'm pretty upset about this. There are so many people you could name a major highway after, Ted Williams, Frank Sinatra, Ernest Hemingway, and they picked Babyface. No wonder they can't stop anyone.

Jacksonville +5.5

How excited were you, coming from Boston, to see Ted Williams highway in San Diego, I think that kicks ass. There actually is a Hemmingway Highway in South Carolina, but I was disappointed to see that there is no such thing as the Bon Jovi highway, I mean he even has a song called Lost Highway. You think that was a hidden plea for someone to name a highway after him?

It is hard to say a changing of the guards is taking place when this new team you speak of is 0-2 and looks like crap so far. These teams are pretty close right now, but this game looked a lot better a month ago before everyone on both teams started getting hurt. The Jaguars offense has been pitiful with all of the O line injuries, and I don’t think Jerry Porter is gong to make the offense better this week. Luckily for the Jags, Bob Sanders is out AGAIN, and we all know that Indy can’t stop anybody without him, so the Jags should run free. Meanwhile, Jeff Saturday is back on the field, and this should give Peyton more time to throw the ball and subsequently match the points on the board. I do think these teams are pretty close, talent wise, though they are completely different types of teams. Without the injuries, I don’t know who I would take. For me, Sanders is the bigger injury and gives the Jags the ability to score and work the clock, which means I have to take the points.

Jags +5.5

2. Pitt @ Philly (-3)

How great was McNabb on Monday night? Spare me the fact they lost. His performance against the Cowboys was one of his best games of his career. Imagine if he had a weapon like Terrell Owens? Oh wait. My decision to take Brian Westbrook with the second overall pick in my East coast draft was the best fantasy decision I ever made. Well, until Adrian Peterson runs for 3,500 yards this season. The Cowboys game convinced me the Eagles can play with anyone in the league, despite how suspect (and old!) the secondary looked. Is it too early to call the Eagles the second best team in the league? They're only four points from being the best, in my opinion. I say they blow the Steelers out. How about this three-team, 10 point teaser, Philly +7, NYG -3, Pats -2.5?

PHILLY -3

That is a pretty solid teaser, though, this is the game I would be most worried about. Philly has looked awesome, but they haven’t played a worthwhile defense yet (yes, I think Dallas does not have a worthwhile defense). That being said, I think McNabb is a stud, and their offense is great. The Steelers have quite a task on their hands trying to stop them. Philly also has a defense that gets overlooked a lot. I think both of these teams are very well rounded, and it will be interesting to see which side of the ball wins out. I wouldn’t be surprised with a low scoring, grind it out game, or with a shoot out like on Monday night. I totally agree with this line because on a neutral field, I don’t know who to pick. Two different offensive styles; The Steelers punch it up the gut and the Eagles swing out and throw a lot of screens. I don’t think there is another franchise more known for blitzing then these two, so I think this one is fun to watch. This game to me is a total toss up, so I am going with the home team.

One other thought, does DeShaun Jackson play with a chip on his shoulder this week after his blunder last week? He may be a guy to watch this week, but I guess he is a guy to watch every week.

Philly -3

1. Dallas @ GB (+3)

What is this, 1996? I haven't been excited for a Packers-Cowboys game since the quarterbacks were Favre and Aikman. This will be the game that tests Aaron Rodgers' meddle. He has played well so far and this is by far his toughest test. I'm expecting the Cowboys to bring heavy pressure and make Rodgers beat them. At this point, however, Dallas looks like the top dog in the NFL. They have too many weapons offensively. We saw last weekend that even if the defense couldn't stop anyone that the offense can make up for it. They look awesome.

Dallas -3

I think both of these teams look awesome. GB has a very good defense, and Aaron Rodgers has shown he can get it done. The Cowboys game last year was when Rodgers had to come in and looked good. I think that was the turning point for me and a lot of other people in our opinions of Rodgers. I think he gets it done again vs a soft pass defense. The Cowboys are going to be tough for anyone to stop, and GB will have its hands full. There should be a lot of points again in this one. We are looking at the only home dog this week. That is insane, all day Monday, not one road team is favored. Well I am gonna take the home team. These are two of the top 5 teams in the NFL, and I think these teams are close enough that it comes down to home field. Stat of the week: Dallas has never won at Green Bay.

Green Bay +3 at the Tundra

Middle Five Picks - Week 3 NFL

Antonio Cromartie and friends have to step up their game this Monday night against Brett Favre and the Jets

The following are the "middle five" games for week three of the NFL season. Oz in black, Clay in blue.

10. Cincy @ NYG (-13)

Does Cincinnati fall into the St. Louis "don't even think about taking the points" category yet? This team is an awful team. I think the important over/under is how many more weeks Marvin Lewis has as coach. I say five more is the over/under and I'm taking the under. I just don't think he really cares about his team anymore. On one hand, we've got a "defensive specialist" coach. On the other, the Bengals have a potentially unstoppable offense. They should be contenders, but what happens? They hire players with questionable backgrounds, the don't reel them in, they "clean up" and re-sign these guys. They let a guy like Chad Johnson completely run the clubhouse, Carson Palmer gets hurt (not his fault) and comes back too soon, no one wants to block for Rudi Johnson and he gets traded, and the team is terribly conditioned and they get hurt.

Something needs to happen. Fire someone. Trade someone. Blow the stadium up. Do something.

NYG -13

Cincy looked close to getting over the hump a few years ago, and things have just been downhill since then. Last year they did much worse then expected, and they didn’t do anything to get better this year. The defense is still less than average and the offense, which has carried the team in the past, can’t do anything. The team is in disarray. The front office undermined Marvin Lewis right before the season started by resigning Chris Henry, and though I expected more out of the offense, I have known from the start that things aren’t right. That being said, 13 points still seems like too much. A Giants team that is notorious for getting lacksidaisical, against an offense with the potential to score points quickly. Then I realized, they beat Washington by 13, and St Louis (a comparable team…shitty defense and offense that should be good but isn’t) by 28 on the road. No reason to not blow out this team. Bulger was on his back all game last week, and I would imagine Palmer will spend a lot of time in the grass too.

Giants -13

9. Ari @ Wash (-3)

Can I vent here for a second? I'm taking a class in classic America novels for my master's degree. I'm stoked about taking the class. For the most part, I've read most of the books and I'm enthusiastic about re-reading them. Secondly, I own most of them, so I figured I wasn't going to have to buy them at the Harvard bookstore. Save me some money, right? Well, I'm wrong. The teacher wants specific editions - of course the ones with critical notes - so we can all "be on the same page. (get it?)" Now, I headed into Cambridge before my class so I could get to the bookstore and begrudgingly purchase the books. Are they in? Of course not! The bookstore lost the list of books for the class so they needed to be re-ordered. That's great, but it doesn't help me at all. I had to order the book from Amazon, despite already owning it. I ordered one day shipping and it didn't arrive today. F*** Amazon and f*** the bookstore. I'm angry.

Anyway, Arizona has played well, but they haven't played anyone. Washington (1-1) has had stiff competition losing to the Giants on the road and beating the Saints. This is a tough one to call. Do I trust Washington's offense putting it together two weeks in a row? Do I trust Arizona being the top-dog in the NFC West (not saying much)? With the line at three, it leads me to believe Vegas is making a ton of money this weekend on this game. Anytime you believe the underdog on the road can win straight up, gotta take them right?

Arizona +3

That’s fine, I have the same issue. I bought the previous edition for the tax class I am taking because it cost $2 and the new one costs $140…I figured it was worth the gamble. Well the problems in the book are almost all the same, except there are a few new ones. Problem is that the teacher assigns all the evens, but they get all effed up because there might be one new problem which pushes all of the evens to odds. Sweet, I didn’t need that $140 to pay off gambling debt or anything. Anyway, I agree totally. We can’t be too sure of either team. I bet against Washington last week because their offense had yet to show any sort of rhythm, well that happened, all be it against the NO defense. Arizona isn’t a whole lot better on that side of the ball, though. I can’t really imagine the Redskins will be able to get to Warner, as the line has been great and the Redskins haven’t put a lot of pressure on the QB to date. The Skins have a nice pass defense, but these Cardinal receivers can’t be covered. I think the Skins will have to score too much to win this one, and I still don’t trust their offense. Am I really that sold on Arizona after wins against SF and Miami….I don’t think so.

Washington -3

8. Tampa @ Chi (-3)

Another game at three, huh? I don't think Tampa Bay will have the same success moving the ball this weekend as they did against Atlanta. Who is starting this weekend for the Bucs, Griese or Garcia? The Bears have impressed me thus far with their ability to regain some of the defensive swagger they had in 2006. I think I'd rather bet just the under here, but the deciding factor on the point spread is going to be whether or not Matt Forte can have any success running the ball.

CHICAGO -3

God what a boring game, how did this make the top 10? I guess they are bot5h solid teams, just really boring to watch. There should not be much scoring here, but Chicago has a better defense and they both have terrible QB. Forte is a stud, and I feel like the Bears D will be trying to rip Griese’s head off. I read today that Garcia has been downgraded to third string. When Brady went down, I said the Pats need some vet that is decent and can just manage the talent around him, a guy like Jeff Garcia I said. Well, looks like the Bucs don’t want him anymore. Bill, what do you have to offer Tampa for a guy that could potentially put your team back in contention. Of course with their schedule they are in contention anyway, but a guy like Garcia who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, but would have no trouble getting the ball to Moss and Welker. Im just sayin.

Chicago -3

7. NYJ @ SD (-9)

(Addendum to two picks ago: Amazon just came through with a late UPS delivery. Now we're just at f*** the bookstore. Sorry, Amazon. You know I love you.)

How hard is it for me to put any faith in San Diego right now? The last two weekends, I've put my larger wager on the Chargers. Both weekends I was screwed by either bad defense or bad officiating. In Ed Hochuli's defense, how in the world does San Diego allow the Broncos to drive right down the field in order to give that opportunity? They never should have been in that situation. Also, no one wanted to cover Brandon Marshall, huh? 18 catches? C'mon defense. I should have lost fantasy football just for that. Read this article on Cromartie from the Union-Tribune. Also, is Darren Sproles the best player on the Chargers?

Next, the Chargers are playing the Jets, whom I think are incredibly overrated from top to bottom. Against pressure (or zone-defenses) Favre is miserable, they have one offensive threat (Cotchery), and can't defend the pass. The Jets are a young team (minus the QB) and should be getting better as the season goes along, but I don't think they're equipt to deal with the Chargers on the road.

CHARGERS -9

I don’t think these teams are even close, either. At the same time, the Chargers haven’t done anything on defense yet. The offense is good, but they can’t carry them all by themselves. I don’t get it, but it is just like last year. The offense and defense were both so conservative to start the season last year, and once they got aggressive on D, the Chargers started dominating. Once again to start the year, they are rushing three or four guys every play. If they do put pressure on Favre, things will be good, but will the defense be aggressive? If not, Favre will pick them apart. Let me put it this way, I’m starting Cotchery. I also think the Jets are over rated and after seeing Miami last week, it confirms that their skin of the teeth win their was garbage. The Chargers need a confidence boost here, but as long as the Pussy Chargers are here I have to take the points. Once they get aggressive I will start betting on them to cover big spreads again.

Jets +9

6. Cleveland @ Baltimore (-2)

(Thanks for reminding me how awesome Pandora.com is. I just heard the best version ever of "Black" by Pearl Jam, off the Live on Two Legs album. It was the first time I'd ever heard that version, and it's compelled me to take a deeper look into that album.)

Everyone's preseason darlings are sitting at 0-2, with both losses coming at home. Last week, they mustered a pathetic 6 points against the Steelers, but kudos to the defense holding the Steelers to just ten points. A very minor victory for Romeo Crennel's team. When does Brady Quinn take over for the Browns? Do they have to start 0-6 for this to happen? The Browns won't be able to run the ball against the Ravens, which will make them a one-dimensional team. An 0-3 start, however, would be terrible for this team. Is it too early to call this a must-win? They cannot afford to go into the bye week (week 5) at 1-3 (I'm brazenly picking them in advance to beat the Bengals next weekend) then head into games against NYG, at Washington, at Jacksonville, and at home again against the Ravens. They win this game. If not, they' could be done.

Browns +2

Then stick a fork in them. The Ravens have a weak offense, but it should be enough against a sub par defense. True, the held Pitt down last weekend, but there were 40 mile per hour winds. I would not put it past the Browns to win this game, but I am starting to believe they were a product of their schedule and a little luck last year. The offense has looked miserable, and they get a very tough, rested defense. I don’t see a lot of scoring here, but it is hard to imagine much more then a dominating performance by the Balt defense and a close win at home. Cleveland wasn’t good on the road last year either, and I don’t expect them to be at this point.

Ravens -2

Bottom Six Week 3 Picks

The following are the six least interesting games of the week, according to Clay and Oz. As always, Oz in black, Clay in blue ...

16. KC AT Atlanta (-5)

I have two questions about these teams. 1.) Is Kansas City's quarterback really Tyler Thigpen? and 2.) After a run-heavy week one win - including 220 yards rushing by Michael Turner -, why would the Falcons be inclined the throw the ball 33 times in week 2 (a loss to Tampa Bay)? The Chiefs averaged just over 3 yards PER PLAY last week against Oakland. A lesson in math would do Herm Edwards well. You have a solid running back in Larry Johnson and a second-year QB in Thigpen. Which one's hands would you put the ball into 33 times? Guess who he chose?

Would you be surprised if Kansas City ended up being the team with the league's worst record? I mean, granted they'll come back in the final 2 minutes against the Chargers at least once, but this team is not very good. I'm expecting to see lots of Michael Turner highlights on game breaks on CBS (partly because I pray this game isn't broadcast 15 minutes in any direction from Atlanta). If that doesn't happen, I think both coaches should be fired. Great choice for worst game of the week. It could be a 41-37 shoot-out or a 0-0 tie.

ATLANTA (-5)

I am going for a 0-0 tie, and thanks, I needed that. Its not like I am getting more depressed every day since the final two seconds of the Panthers game. This is just disgusting here, and you know what, we probably will get this game. We have had the Chiefs both weeks of the NFL so far. Seriously? Do these people seriously think that anyone in San Diego wants to watch the Chiefs. I guess they are tied with the Chargers…for…ahmmmm last place.

I don’t care what happens in this game. I thought Atlanta might be decent, but that was pathetic last week. This will be a low scoring game, so it would be easy to take the points. Rookie qb vs terrible qb. I have to think Turner has a pretty good game. KC couldn’t beat Oakland at home, can they keep it under a td on the road? Can I bet on Atlanta as a favorite? Did you actually think Atlanta would be a favorite in any game this year? Damn, Atlanta really has more weapons then KC.

ATLANTA -5

15. Oak @ Bills (-9)

I'm beginning to think you have a grudge against the Raiders. This is the second week in a row they've been placed in the bottom two positions. After McFadden decided he didn't want to be tackled last week, I thought you'd place them a little higher, especially since they're playing your preseason crush Marshawn Lynch's team. This game could be placed a little low. And, yes, I do understand that the Raiders played the Chiefs. Even still, you gotta give McFadden a little credit.

The Bills have impressed me thus far. John Edwards from Crossing Over threw for 236 yards against one of the "best" defenses in the league. The Bills, faced with Lynch being contained all day long, actually moved the ball through the air, something they haven't been able to do since Jim Kelly was playing in Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills look like the second best team in the AFC East.

BUFFALO -9

You are right that this game should have been higher, I blew it there. The Bills did look good last week, and they get rewarded with a 9 point spread. The Defense has looked good, the running game has looked OK, and the it was like John Edwards had dead people stealing plays from the Jags defensive coordinator. If he has more games in him like that the Bills could…wait for it…challenge the Patriots for the division. Oakland looked better this week, I say looked, but even though it was one of two games on tv I didn’t watch it. In fact, I didn’t even watch more than 20 minutes of the Giants vs Rams game because it was more interesting to sit in the office and watch gametracker for the other games. Thanks CBS and Fox for making such great decisions on which games the San Diego market would be interested in. McFadden has already had two minor injuries in his two NFL games, which worries me a little. I hope that Fargas is not healthy so that McFadden continues to get the bulk of the carries. Even though I feel good about the Bills right now, it is hard to take away 9 points. After the Denver offense dismantled the Chargers I feel a bit better about the Oak defense. They may be able to keep this game close. There should be a lot of handoffs in this game. I think they keep it close enough.

Raiders +9

(P.S. For those of you who are causing trouble on Union Sports, relax. We made the John Edwards joke because it’s suggesting that Trent Edwards is a no one. At least we weren’t making the joke about John Edwards the politician. Then we’d be forced to make jokes about the “my wife has cancer so vote for me’” Presidential platform.)

Keep in mind, by Sunday I will probably be betting on the Bills, but this is what you get for doing picks on Tues.

14. Hou @ Tenn (-5)

It's about the third week of the season that the oddsmakers begin to accurately place lines.It's tough to get a reading on the Texans because they haven't played since week one and they got their asses kicked. Kerry Collins is the Titans quarterback and he led the game in passing with a staggering 134 yard day. I love that the opposing quarterback was my fantasy choice, Carson Palmer. Chris Johnson looks like the real deal, but the Bengals held him in check aside from a 51-yard TD run. His big play ability is what's going to play a role in the gameplan.

With that said, I think the Texans defense (actually, this is something I know) is better than the Bengals’. Matt Schaub is better than Collins. The Texans have faced a little adversity this season and that adversity can lead into a team becoming more unified and winning one when it matters most for the morale of the team and the city.

Texans (+5)

Or it can lead to dissention and a lack of focus. Tennessee’s defense has been superb so far, but they have faced to screwed up offenses. I don’t like the Texans on the road again, and their offense is a bit one dimensional. I think when facing a defense as good as this, you have to be able to mix things up on offense, but the Titans front line is good enough to leave on their own to stop the run, and work on keeping Shaub and Johnson in check. I don’t how much Kerry Collins and the Titans offense will be able to accomplish, but so far they have been able to do enough. Collins, pathetically, is a bigger threat in the passing game then was Vince Young. I see no reason this game should go over the total, no matter where it is set. As of today, I think that the Houston offense should do just enough to keep it close with Tenn doing very little on offense.

Texans +5

13. Miami @ NE (-12.5)

Nothing made me happier than when I received a text message stating 19-10, game over, Pats win. I was at a wedding with no TV's anywhere. The subtraction of Tom Brady makes the Patriots weaker, but they still have a tremendous team. The Pats are going to have to harken back to the days of Antwoine Smith and David Patten, role players performing just their jobs, nothing less, nothing more; they're going to have to rely on the schemes and gameplans of Belichick; Lastly, they need the defense to play as one solid unit throughout (see: 2001, 2003) in order to be a serious contender. Guys like Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison are going to have to come to play every week, which they started off nicely this weekend in New York. Without Brady, are the Patriots a Super Bowl favorite? No way. Can they at least play with the big boys? Without a doubt. They can beat some of them too.

What I liked when I watched the game on DVR was how Matt Cassell managed the game. He does get a little anxious in the pocket, but that will come from never starting a college or pro game in his career. New England also settled for the safer plays down in the red zone, which should change once Cassell becomes more confident. The runningbacks played well, Wes Welker is money in the bank every game, and, again, once the confidence comes, the Patriots will be able to stretch the field with Moss. I wouldn't be shocked to see them try deep once or twice against the Dolphins this weekend.

This game won't be a blowout, in the usual foot-on-the-gas Patriots blowout, but I think the Patriots are good enough to beat the Dolphins by two trips to the endzone. Click here to see what the "experts" think.

PATRIOTS -12.5

I actually agree with you. The Patriots are still a good team, and they are only going to ask Cassel to manage the game. Again, in his second start, they don’t need him to win the game, they just need him to not lose it. Against he Dolphins that shouldn’t be a problem, and they can probably take a few risks. Then again, they don’t want to hurt his confidence by throwing two picks, even with a 24-6 lead. You mention the Patriots of old, and that is a stretch because these Patriots have a lot more talent, they just are missing their main guy. Like the Patriots of old, however, I think the 2008 Patriots will just do enough to win and work week to week to win the division and improve and come together as time goes on. Patriots win this one easy, but I see a nice back door cover here buy the fish.

Dolphins +12.5

12. StLouis @ Seattle (-10)

I would have ranked this game 15th. Until further notice, any game involving Kansas City, or anyone in the NFC West gets ranked last. Got it? I'm not convinced either of these teams are any good. The Seahawks lost a shoot-out AT HOME to the 49ers last weekend, and the Rams got demolished by the defending champs, also at home. My question is not who covers, I know my pick, but whether to take the over or the under. Seattle ran the ball all over the 49ers last week, but they let J.T. O'Sullivan throw for 321 yards. St. Louis, on the other hand, couldn't run or pass, nor could they stop the run.

New rationale, until further notice, I'm taking the points against the Rams.

Seattle (-10)

Here is the issue, the Niners offense looked lost until they got to Seattle. What happened? Seattle used to win with solid defense and a functional offense. Now they have neither. St Louis hasn’t done anything to warrant taking their side with any spread, but Seattle has done nothing to warrant a 10 point spread. They lost last week as 9 point favorites and the odds makers go right back to them. I think Seattle finally gets their first win of the season (I say finally, my poor Chargers) but 10 points. The truth is that St Louis has been outscored 79-16, and now they go into a hostile environment. Their defense hasn’t stopped anything, and their offense hasn’t beaten anything (all be it against two very good defenses). I think the St Louis offense gets enough done for an over, but 63 points they have lost by so far. I can’t take any amount of points for the Rams until they do one single thing good on the football field. That has yet to happen. Taking St Louis right now would be like betting on Eddie Murphys next movie to be good. Sure, he has made a ton of good movies in the past, and we know he is talented, but how long has it been since he did anything worthwhile…anything?

Seattle -10

11. Det @ SF (-4)

This is a nice combination of two teams that are enigmas. Detroit is getting manhandled so far this season and San Francisco has the aforementioned O'Sullivan behind center. Aaron Rodgers threw all over Detorit last weekend, and we know as much about Rodgers as we do O'Sullivan, really. The Lions showed signs of life against the Packers last week before Kitna decided he'd throw two touchdown passes to the other team. I don't think Isaac Bruce can go off like he did last weekend, especially on grass in San Francisco. We know Frank Gore is good, though. I'm lost on this pick.

When in doubt, I guess, history can't be wrong. The 49ers have won already this season, the Lions have not. I'm expecting a no-defense game here. I'd say the safer money is on the over.

49ERS (-4)

Another over game here. San Fran used to be an under team with great defense and poor offense. Detroit is still an over team with terrible defense and a good offense in the second half when down by 24 points. After Detroit got destroyed at Atlanta, it is hard to take them on the road. They almost backdoored GB, but the defense had nothing when it mattered. The Niners problem on defense has been the running game, which is questionable for Detroit. The Lions have the Eddie Murphy syndrome too, I won’t believe it until I see it.

49ERS -4

Best game of week 2

This week's marquee game takes place between the Eagles and Cowboys

Alright here we go, I like getting more interesting each day, except yesterday’s games weren’t really exciting. The highlight of my day yesterday? Watching the first new episode of Entourage in, I don’t know how long. This weekend I resubscribed to HBO, because I just do these things on a monthly basis based on the shows that they are currently running. I switch between HBO and Showtime, but I left showtime after Californication and Weeds was over, and didn’t hook up again for this last Weeds season, I heard it was going up in smoke, sorry that was corny. Anyway, I had heard Entourage would be back again and so I figured it was worth getting back into HBO because at least they have some pretty good movies on demand and I decided I didn’t need Blockbuster online anymore and this would be a nice compromise. So I started watching some old episodes of Entourage and it felt like hanging out with old friends again, only friends that do way cooler things than me and my friends do. Then I got a new one last night and it didn’t disappoint at all. Ari made me laugh, Vince made me jealous (his first scene back he was banging two amazingly hot girls at the same time in a bungalow on the beach in Mexico) and E became even a bigger douche. I love that Horse saw him at his rehearsal dinner and he was even shorter then expected…somehow this makes me feel better about myself.

Apparently, A.V. Arias is paying Clay pretty well if he can afford HBO. Actually, I was supposed to get it for free for switching cable companies, but I was lazy and never called. Oh well. I'm moving in three weeks. I hope the following makes you jealous, though, I'm currently at my computer with a dip and two beers intent on finishing both before the picks are finished and put onto the website. I guarantee there's not another NFL picks columnist doing that.

Anyway, on to the picks.

6. Buffalo @ JACKSONVILLE (-6): I like this line, this is exactly where I would have put it. The Jags disappointed us last week and the Bills outdid our expectations, except for the guy who was really pissed off that we both picked Seattle and discounted the Bills…I guess that makes us 0-1 vs the public. I am not sure how to take the Bills win last week. Are they better then I thought, or is Seattle worse? Seattle is definitely worse, and losing Burleson is ridiculous. They had to go out and find guys off of the street to play wideout and Seneca Wallace had to run routes in practice because they only had two healthy receivers. Anyway, I do think the Bills are better, but I also think Jacksonville is still as good as I originally thought. They have three starters out on their O line and that is going to hurt. Buffalo had 5 sacks last week and held a pathetic rushing game to 85 total yards. This is a dangerous spot for the Jags, thought they got a break with Indy losing last week too. I think the game will be a defensive struggle, and I think the Jags win because they have the better QB. I think both teams will have trouble running the ball, which is great since I have Lynch and Jones-Drew on my team. A 17-10 win wouldn’t surprise me, but neither would a 16-13 win or even a loss the either way. I may switch this one back and forth the next few days, but I think the Jags have something to prove and they are playing at home. I think Buffalo’s offense could seriously struggle this week and the Jags won’t give them gifts like Seattle did last week. Too close, have to take the points. A healthy Jags O-line and I don’t think twice about them.

Bills +6

Wait, who is this guy who is angry with us? I must have missed that. Why is he mad? It could be Schlabach mad that Amy dumped him. I feel like I should write this guy an apology because he was right about us underestimating Buffalo.

(Come to think of it, we are pretty stupid. We always talk shit about how bad Seattle really is, but we always pick them.)

Jacksonville is still good. I’m not worried about them. They have a better defense and a better quarterback then Buffalo and I think they’re good enough, at home, to cover this week.

Jaguars -6 (you’re always spot on with the line; it’s a great place for it.)

5. San Diego @ DENVER (+1): I may have this high because I am excited for it, but it should be a good battle. Denver is the only team in the West that has a shot to challenge the Chargers for the division, and it starts here because they need to win at home to do that. Denver is one of the toughest places in the league to play, and they are going to be confident coming off of the shellacking they gave the Raiders on the road. The SD defense looked pretty shitty last week, which I think is partly real and partly a case of over confidence. I am a little worried about a defense without Merriman or Stephen Cooper. Merriman may not always have huge numbers, but when he is in the game, offenses plan to avoid him and that makes the field a lot smaller. The run D looked like garbage, so if they play better, I am pretty sure the Chargers will be good. I hope Cromartie learned his lesson last week and gives up this bullshit 15 interceptions thing and just makes plays. I think a wake up call in week 1 is good for a team like this. Now they have to make plays to win, you can’t always go for the pick.

I think LT has a huge day, and I don’t think the Chargers have much trouble scoring this week. If the defense can make a few plays and bring Cutler back to reality, I think they should have no problem. If Denver runs the ball like Carolina last week, though, and keeps the offense off the field, that is where SD could get in trouble. I personally don’t think that happens based on the Broncos last week, but Shanahan is no slouch.

Chargers -1

I’ve gone back and forth on this game, but not because I think the Broncos are better than the Chargers. In fact, I think the Chargers could play 100 games against this team and they should win every time. Notice I said “should.”

You were pretty accurate with your Merriman assessment. He did play to show how much of a team player he was and I think he did it at the expense of a team that would have been better off having 11 healthy guys on the field. If the Chargers cannot stop the run again this week, they could be in trouble. Brandon Marshall is returning and he could be up for a big game if the run is to set up the pass.

While you may be pining for LT to have a big game, I’m looking to Chris Chambers, who did nothing for me last weekend in fantasy.

Chargers -1

4. Indianapolis @ MINNESOTA (+1): Not like starting 0-2 means you can’t make the playoffs, no one wants to be in a hole that quickly, and one of these teams will be. Jeff Saturday is a very important part of the Colts offense, and the word on the street is that he may be playing. I don’t know how that works since he was supposed to be out 4-6 weeks, but I can’t imagine he would be as effective as usual. Minnesota worked this off-season on the pass rush, and if Peyton doesn’t have time he is not himself. On the other side of the ball, Indy couldn’t stop the run last week against a team that has no passing game, while Minnesota has one of the best backs in the NFL. I see AP going all day, and Indy’s offense doesn’t look like it is performing where it can, which should be enough for the Vikings to pull off the upset.

Vikings +1

This is an intriguing game. This may be the only time I say something positive about Tavaris Jackson, but he didn’t look horrible against Green Bay. Yes, he made an awful decision at the end of the game, throwing a pick – and sealing the loss - was the result. He did look FAST. He made correct decisions to run when he needed to. If he can get on the same page with Berrian and Rice, all he’s going to need to do is manage the game. Jackson is fast enough to keep the Colts defense honest and that is going to open up the game for Peterson.

The Colts just look old, don’t they?

Vikings +1

3. New England @ New York Jets (-1): If anyone would have told me that week two of the season the Patriots would be 1 point dogs at NYJ 3 months ago I would have laughed in their face. This is unbelievable. While we are on the Patriots, I want to point out that anybody blaming Bernard Pollard for this is just bitter. It was an accident very common to the game of football….get over it. It’s hard to look back at the Patriots now and predict how they will do. Cassel is not good, but Belichic is, and he isn’t going to put a lot of pressure on his QB in his first start since high school. He will run the ball a lot against a team that defended the run worse then most teams last year, and basically do what the Patriots always do. Run quick slants that are very hard to eff up, and keep it simple. The Jets may get something done against a somewhat suspect secondary, but the Pats have a great front 7, and the Jets newly rebuilt line will be tested. I am not sold on the Jets just because they held off a last second comeback against the Dolphins. They will have to do more then that for me to dethrone the Patriots, no matter who is behind center.

Patriots +1

Right on pace, I’ve open my second beer after three picks. Perfect timing for this game. For those of you who don’t already know, I’m a Patriots fan. I’m not an “it’s going to be okay” Patriots fan, either. I’ve been miserable all week. It’s taken over my social life and affected my job performance. At one point, I told my students, “It’s not even worth caring about anything anymore.”

Well, life goes on, I guess. My barber told me not to be so upset because if I got injured and couldn’t go to work, Tom Brady wouldn’t care. You know what, Peter? I think he would.

Who can be mad at Bernard Pollard? It did piss me off that some asshole made t-shirts that said “Bernard Pollard fan club, est. 9/7/08.”

With all of this said, there is absolutely no way in hell the Jets win this game. The Patriots have regained their “us against the world” mentality and will still win the AFC East, which is not a good division. Does it scare me that the Patriots will have to play someone like Pittsburgh, Indy, San Diego, or Jacksonville on the road come playoff time? Yes. Do the Jets scare me a little? No. Favre throws at least two INT’s this weekend.

Patriots +1 (this line is a joke)

2. Pittsburgh @ CLEVELAND (+6): This game seems closer to me, but in all reality, they could be further apart. They couldn’t have looked much further apart last week. Cleveland couldn’t do anything to stop or score on Dallas. Pitt doesn’t quite have the firepower that Dallas has, but they aren’t far behind, and they shouldn’t have any trouble scoring this week, again. The browns tried to beef up their pass rush, which could slow down the Steelers if their questionable O-line proves to be their weakness. I think Pitt has a better defense than Dallas, so things won’t get any easier. I think the Browns O is better then they looked last week, and I think they can score on any defense, but they have to prove it. The Steelers edged out the Browns by their head to head victories last year, which makes this game seem even more important. If you ask me, after the Browns performance last week, the Steelers will stroll to the division crown, and this will just be a quick stop. I think we find out this week if the Browns’ season last year was just one of those seasons where everything fell into place, or if they are here to stay. I hope it is the latter, and I am going to pick them as much out of that hope for that as I think all off-season the whole organization has been preparing for this game. I don’t know how you look past Dallas, but that is a possibility, and I think this team and crowd will be fired up. The goal of this season is to beat Pitt, the rest will fall into place if they can do that. I think they at least keep it close.

Cleveland +6

I can’t take stock of either team after last weekend. The Steelers looked good, but they played Houston. The Browns looked awful, but they played Dallas (and would it surprise anyone if Dallas was just that good?). Before the season, I suggested that this could be the season the Browns take the division from the Steelers, but I’m not so sure after week one. A lop-sided win has to count for something regardless of whom it was against.

Inter-division games are tough to call because teams tend to step their game up against the other. If this line were six points in Three Rivers, it’d be an easy pick. While this may change before final wagers are placed, I gotta take the points.

Cleveland +6

1. Philadelphia @ Dallas (-7): Saving the best for last in our column and the last game of the week. Then again, Ike has made the Houston game move to Monday. Could you imagine living in Cuba? Not only does the government absolutely suck, but you can’t even leave if you hate it. If you are studly baseball player you have to sneak out of the country to make money, which is kind of hard on an island. Oh yeah, and everyone lives in shacks and they get blasted by hurricanes every year. I don’t have a whole lot to say on this one, it is a great matchup, these two played some of the best football in week one, and should be competing for the division. The offenses are pretty even, and I think Philly has an edge on the defensive side of the ball. Give Dallas home field and I think we are damn close. That being said 7 points is flat out too much. If they got -3 I would probably still take Philly because I think either team could win, so grab your points. Lets go Donovan!

Philly +7

Oddsmakers can sure be assholes sometimes. When I saw the game, I said, “Shit, this will be a good game, but Dallas could win by 14, if they are that good.” Then I changed my mind. “The Eagles could win something like 27-24.” If this game were six points, I’d take the Cowboys, but seven is too high.

Philly +7

Week two picks

Can the Giants continue to impress against a lowly St. Louis Rams team?

This week we are trying a new format. We will rank the games from 1 to 16 in order of interest, starting off the week with the most boring match-ups and working our way to the best games of the week. Order of interest, however, often is the opposite of value. The best match-ups each week are usually the hardest to wager one, where as the most boring games to watch can often hold the most value in a lopsided game. We will put out 4 to 5 picks per day and finish off on Friday with our top 5 picks. Lets start off with a thrilling matchup out in the AFC West.

Well put, Clay. I like the new format because it eliminates all the stress of picking 16 games in a row. It also provides daily opportunities to get away from this crazy thing called work that I do only 180 days a year. I'm not ready to start another week yet. It's been rough with the loss of Brady and I know I should be optimistic about things being "exciting" again, but I'm not. It's like finding your wife has been cheating on you then going back to a family gathering the next weekend pretending things are okay when all you really want to do is chain-smoke and swear.

Clay in Blue, Oz in black.

16. Oakland @ KANSAS CITY (-4): Let me start by saying this is one of the three games (1 being the Charger game of course) that we get on tv here in SD. Oh yeah, and one of the three last week was NE @ KC, and according to this website, which is awesome, SD was the only market West of Missouri and one of two markets (Birmingham, AL…don’t ask me why) that were outside of these teams respective markets, that had this game. Who makes these decisions, and do you think I could get away with murder if I put a lot of time and thought into it? Maybe I should hire OJ as a consultant.

I guess I have to pick a winner here. Oakland looked miserable, but I still think they are better than that showing. KC is definitely not as good as Denver, and they looked better then they should have against a distraught NE team. I think one is over rated and one is underrated. No reason one of the worst teams in the league should be giving 4 points…against anyone.

Raiders +4

Well, this is definitely the worst game of the week. You're right; Oakland looked awful and the only reasons the Chiefs kept the game close last week against the Patriots is that the crowd was completely taken out of the game with the Brady injury and the team (players and coaches) was a little shell-shocked about losing their marquee guy. I do think Oakland is a better team than Kansas City. The Chiefs were completely ineffective on the ground and they also lost their starting quarterback. The only thing that bothers me is where this game is being played. Playing at Arrowhead or not, the Chiefs, as you put it, should never be giving four points to anyone.

Raiders +4

15. San Francisco @ SEATTLE (-9): Close to the same, but both teams looked terrible. I had faith that Seattle was a better TEAM, and that the offense would do enough with the support of the defense. I think the real lesson from their game last week is that Seattle is terrible not that Buffalo is better then I thought (though they may be). SF looked pretty horrendous too, but at least their top FOUR receivers aren’t injured. With Burleson going down last week, this offense has zero weapons. This game will be brutal to watch, but I think SF does enough to cover 9, and they maybe because they lose 9-3.

San Francisco +9

The first week was a rough week to assess many teams. Kind of like getting wasted at a rehearsal dinner and thinking all the bridesmaids are cute. The next morning you're like "wow, I was not thinking straight." Of the "top" five teams, three lost, one lost their QB, and Dallas shit on a playoff contender. No one really knows for sure. Unfortunately for the league, Seattle could go 6-10 and still make the playoffs. That's how bad their division is. I'm ready to call them terrible, but you and I are both harsh on this squad of pussies. They have no weapons, their coach was always overrated (and fat), and I'm going with you and picking my second road team to cover.

San Francisco +9

14. Tennessee @ CINCINNATI (-1): I know the home team automatically gets 3 points, so this is essentially Tenn -2, but really? Cincinnati looked as bad as almost any team last week (sorry, but St Louis takes the cake) and they are giving a point to a team that took down one of the Super Bowl favorites? I don’t get this. I know VY is hurt, but isn’t a football team better when they have a quarterback that is a threat to throw the ball? Doesn’t that give an offense balance? Isn’t Kerry Collins a wily veteran? Ok, that last one is bullshit, sorry. Either way, there is no way I can pick Cincy to win a game at this point. I don’t necessarily buy into Tenn yet, but Chris Johnson is a stud, and their defense is definitely solid. I don’t think Balt defense is that much better then the Titans D, and the Titans have a better offense then the Ravens, so I can’t imagine this game looking much different then last week for the Bengals.

Titans +1

You forgot to mention that Vince Young went crazy. Is their a more unstable guy in the NFL than Vince Young? He got like a 4 out of 30 on his Wonderlic test. The guy is a certifiable retard. Now he drove away from his home in a fit of sadness and brought a gun with him? He's nuts.

(On a tangent here: now the "big deal" was that he left his house without his phone. When did leaving the house without a cell phone constitute an issue? Are cell phones THAT important? I leave mine at home on purpose some days. Does that mean I'm crazy?)

The Titans do, however, have a better than than the Bengals. How much longer does Marvin Lewis have a job? I give him until week 12. They looked awful last weekend against the Ravens. I'm so happy I picked Carson Palmer in my fantasy league ... twice.

Titans +1

13. Baltimore @ HOUSTON (+4.5): Speak of the devil. Houston looked terrible, and I don’t want to jump to conclusions about the team but offensively, things aren’t going to get any easier this week. Granted, they are at home now, and Baltimore’s offense is not nearly as good as Pittsburgh’s. I also don’t want to jump to conclusions (if only I had a jump to conclusions mat, then I wouldn’t even have to do research) about Baltimore after beating one of the worst teams in the league, in my personal opinion. Baltimore is still lead by a rookie QB, and he survived week one at home against the terrifying Bengals defense, I don’t think he survives week 2 on the road.

Texans +4.5

I just can't trust a rookie quarterback two weeks in a row, but he'll probably prove me wrong twice in a row. Houston should not be able to move the ball very well against the Ravens though. This is a difficult game to pick for me for those two reasons. When's the last time a rookie quarterback started 2-0? But when was the last time he faced ninny-shits like the Texans and Bengals? I'm going with my gut here.

Baltimore -4.5

12. Miami @ ARIZONA (-7): Could the Cardinals get an easier start to the season? A road game against San Fran, and then a home game against the Dolphins. Well the Dolphins were more respectable then I thought they’d be in week 1, but the Jets are overrated. The Dolphins offense sucks, and I don’t know I think the Cardinals offense will be too much for them to handle. I basically think the Dolphins suck. I don’t like giving away 7 points on Arizona, but I have trouble visualizing the Dolphins keeping the game within a score on the road. The running game looked terrible and do you really think they are better then SF (at least SF at home and Miami on the road). I got to take the chalk at home in this one, even though I would rather take nothing at all.

Cardinals -7

I agree with you about the Jets; they're overrated and that's why the Dolphins could hang with them in week one. The 'Phins now go on the road to Arizona, who looked okay offensively against UC-Davis (oh, that was the 49ers?). The Dolphins have no one that can cover Larry Fitzgerald (see: Randy Moss's two TD's last season and Jericho Cotchery's TD last week). There's no way the Cardinals don't destroy Miami at home.

Cardinals -7

11. Green Bay @ DETROIT (+3): This seems a little too easy to me. Do people not trust Rodgers yet? Do they think Detroit will be that much better at home, or GB will be that much worse on the road? Based on last week’s results, this seems way to small of a line. I mean Detroit was EMBARASSED last week and GB had a nice showing in a win over a quality team. Based on last year, this line seems to small because GB is a solid team all around, and Detroit appears to have the worst defense in the league. I think I would take GB giving up 9 points, three is cake for me. I think Grant rushes for 150 and 2 scores.

This line gives me the impression that odds makers seem to think this will be a better game then the 11^th best of the week, I don’t.

Green Bay -3

That is a surprising line. If you told me to guess what it was, I'd say at least 6 and that's only because Green Bay was on the road. I'm not an Aaron Rodgers disciple yet, but he did play well on Monday night. In particular, I remember two passes. The first touchdown pass was very Favre-esque, but if you watch the replay, it was an excellently thrown ball. The second throw also went for a TD but was called back. So to do the math, Green Bay beat a potential playoff team and Detroit got abused by a team that could have the #1 pick.

Green Bay -3

10. Atlanta @ TAMPA BAY (-9): I am not too sure about this one. We all know Atlanta exceeded our expectations last week, but Matt Ryan didn’t have to do anything, where as a one dimensional offense will not succeed against Tampa. The line seems a bit large from the outset, especially with Garcia not playing. Tampa should have no trouble shutting down Atlanta’s offense, though, and if they can’t move the ball, the Bucs offense doesn’t have to do much to win by 10. This seems like an easy under to me, as Atlanta only threw the ball 13 times last week and we shouldn’t expect much different with a rookie QB on the road. On the other side, Brian Griese fills in as another one of those “veteran” QBs that completely discredits the term veteran all together.

I don’t know why Tampa would have a nice home field advantage when no one there cares, but they went 6-2 at home last year, and there is absolutely no reason for them to lose here. I would have thought that Atlanta would be over valued after last week, but 9 points is a lot. I’d obviously like this better if we got 10, but I think this game is close mostly because neither team is going to be aggressive. This game could easily be in the range of 16-10.

Atlanta +9

Again I have to agree. Matt Ryan isn't going to be asked to do much against a team as good as Tampa Bay. Wait, did I just call Tampa Bay "good"? That's as far as I'm going. Maybe I'll even reduce that to "above average." Last week, favorites over nine points were 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU. I can't go with this large of a spread in the second week. Do I see Tampa Bay winning the game 20-10? 17-7? Of course, but ten points for Tampa Bay, even when they won the SB, is too much.

Atlanta +9

9.New York Giants @ ST. LOUIS (+9): Both of these games are tough for me. I think this could be too many points for both of them. I thought St Louis would put up a better showing then that last week, but they looked miserable. The Giants looked good, all be it against a struggling Washington team and only really in the first half. This offense has the potential to be very good, if Eli is on his game. St Louis also has the potential to be good, but their offense never got in a rhythm. They have to protect Bulger, and the defense has to make tackles to keep this game close. I may change my mind a few times on this one, but I think I am going to take the points for the home team. I think the Giants were under valued last week and over valued this week. St Louis bounces back a bit, still loses, but by less then 10.

Rams +9

I have to say right now that before I went home from work today, I went to the liquor store and bought a 12-pack and began drinking on the way home. My reason? I needed to do these picks when I got home.I couldn't face the idea of writing about the NFL without a cold beer. What's the rule of drinking while driving? I mean, I'm not drunk. It's only one beer, right? The troopers should start to worry when they pull me over for throwing bottles out of my window like it's a dorm room in Abbey Hall.

The Giants did only look good in the first half, but they looked very much unlike Giants teams I remember. They were actually entertaining to watch. The Rams, on the other hand, didn't play one good quarter of football. In fact, it looked as if it was a varsity-jv scrimmage. I'm going back on my "no teams with high spreads covered last week" ideal and taking the spread. St. Louis, you're on the clock.

New York Giants -9

8. New Orleans @ WASHINGTON (-1): In the offseason, I liked Washington a lot to compete in the East, but after the preseason you could see that the offense just hadn’t figured things out yet. I changed my mind last minute and took the Giants last week and it paid off for me (no here in my picks) and I don’t think things changed this week. Jason Campbell has never inspired confidence in me, and with a new offense, he looks even worse. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team was very difficult to beat in the second half of the season, but they just don’t get their offense yet, and the defense will be much better when Jason Taylor is healthy. New Orleans looked good in their win over a quality bucs team, and I think they should do fine this week.

Washington was really tough against the pass last year, and won’t make it easy on Brees, especially without Colston. It will be interesting to see how the running game works out for the Saints and whether or not Deuce McAllister touches the ball at all. If he doesn’t, can Pierre Thomas take the bulk. I don’t think Reggie Bush is good unless there is another back pounding out the hard yards. I think that takes away from his big play ability, so if Pierre/Deuce can get something done up the middle, I think Reggie will break something off and the Saints offense will do enough to win against an sloppy Redskins O.

Saints +1

You're right. The Redskins aren't there yet. They are pretty good defensively and they have weapons on offense, but I don't trust any of them. Can Portis have a big game? Moss? Even Cooley? Of course they can, but they never seem to all put it together. Until that happens, a spread this small against a quality team seems like a sure bet.

It'll be interesting to see what the Saints do when they're pushed to be a little more one-dimensional on offense. They looked like the Saints of a couple years ago with their explosiveness and it looks like Reggie Bush has gotten his head out of Kim Kardashian's ass for long enough to reclaim some of the threat he had in college. I do believe he'll be a faster Thurman Thomas-type back in the NFL whereas he can spread the field and run the ball. It wouldn't surprise me if he went over 1,000 yards in receiving OR rushing eventually.

Saints +1

7. Chicago @ CAROLINA (-3): The bastard ass Panthers come home pretty high this week. Both of these teams won last week and both were 9+ dogs on the road. I am more surprised by Chicago then by Carolina because I thought Carolina would be tough, where as Chicago should not win on the road against Super Bowl contenders. Carolina ran the ball with ease last week, and that won’t happen against Chicago (it shouldn’t at least) but the DeAngelo Willimas and Jonathan Stewart combo could be pretty good this year. Delhomme was pretty flawless, and the defense did enough. Chicago shut down Indy’s offense, and score more points then I thought they’d have after week 3. I don’t think they will be able to run the ball like they did last week, and I don’t feel any better about the Bears as a whole then I did before they beat the Colts.

A 3 point line for the home team basically says all things are equal, give the home team the edge. All things are not equal. The Bears could have me as their QB and Oz as the starting wide receiver and the Panthers wouldn’t be any less intimidated. They stack the line and Forte gets stuffed over and over and the Panthers win this one easily.

Panthers -3

We are, however, very formidable threats on offense, so don't sell us short. However, since it's been 10 years since I started a football game (MUCH more on that tomorrow), I doubt I have the explosiveness I once had. My skills now are defined by bocce and darts.

You know what? In the preseason, I'm always high on Carolina, yet every time I come across a line, I can't get myself to bet on them and they always prove me wrong. From what I saw last weekend, the Panthers looked great, especially Delhomme when leading for the winning score in the final minute. They didn't panic and it looked like all of the players were on the same page. That says something for confidence in a quarterback (and each other). I like this Panthers team already.

Panthers -3

Stay tuned tomorrow for the top 6 games of the week.