Week two picks

Can the Giants continue to impress against a lowly St. Louis Rams team?

This week we are trying a new format. We will rank the games from 1 to 16 in order of interest, starting off the week with the most boring match-ups and working our way to the best games of the week. Order of interest, however, often is the opposite of value. The best match-ups each week are usually the hardest to wager one, where as the most boring games to watch can often hold the most value in a lopsided game. We will put out 4 to 5 picks per day and finish off on Friday with our top 5 picks. Lets start off with a thrilling matchup out in the AFC West.

Well put, Clay. I like the new format because it eliminates all the stress of picking 16 games in a row. It also provides daily opportunities to get away from this crazy thing called work that I do only 180 days a year. I'm not ready to start another week yet. It's been rough with the loss of Brady and I know I should be optimistic about things being "exciting" again, but I'm not. It's like finding your wife has been cheating on you then going back to a family gathering the next weekend pretending things are okay when all you really want to do is chain-smoke and swear.

Clay in Blue, Oz in black.

16. Oakland @ KANSAS CITY (-4): Let me start by saying this is one of the three games (1 being the Charger game of course) that we get on tv here in SD. Oh yeah, and one of the three last week was NE @ KC, and according to this website, which is awesome, SD was the only market West of Missouri and one of two markets (Birmingham, AL…don’t ask me why) that were outside of these teams respective markets, that had this game. Who makes these decisions, and do you think I could get away with murder if I put a lot of time and thought into it? Maybe I should hire OJ as a consultant.

I guess I have to pick a winner here. Oakland looked miserable, but I still think they are better than that showing. KC is definitely not as good as Denver, and they looked better then they should have against a distraught NE team. I think one is over rated and one is underrated. No reason one of the worst teams in the league should be giving 4 points…against anyone.

Raiders +4

Well, this is definitely the worst game of the week. You're right; Oakland looked awful and the only reasons the Chiefs kept the game close last week against the Patriots is that the crowd was completely taken out of the game with the Brady injury and the team (players and coaches) was a little shell-shocked about losing their marquee guy. I do think Oakland is a better team than Kansas City. The Chiefs were completely ineffective on the ground and they also lost their starting quarterback. The only thing that bothers me is where this game is being played. Playing at Arrowhead or not, the Chiefs, as you put it, should never be giving four points to anyone.

Raiders +4

15. San Francisco @ SEATTLE (-9): Close to the same, but both teams looked terrible. I had faith that Seattle was a better TEAM, and that the offense would do enough with the support of the defense. I think the real lesson from their game last week is that Seattle is terrible not that Buffalo is better then I thought (though they may be). SF looked pretty horrendous too, but at least their top FOUR receivers aren’t injured. With Burleson going down last week, this offense has zero weapons. This game will be brutal to watch, but I think SF does enough to cover 9, and they maybe because they lose 9-3.

San Francisco +9

The first week was a rough week to assess many teams. Kind of like getting wasted at a rehearsal dinner and thinking all the bridesmaids are cute. The next morning you're like "wow, I was not thinking straight." Of the "top" five teams, three lost, one lost their QB, and Dallas shit on a playoff contender. No one really knows for sure. Unfortunately for the league, Seattle could go 6-10 and still make the playoffs. That's how bad their division is. I'm ready to call them terrible, but you and I are both harsh on this squad of pussies. They have no weapons, their coach was always overrated (and fat), and I'm going with you and picking my second road team to cover.

San Francisco +9

14. Tennessee @ CINCINNATI (-1): I know the home team automatically gets 3 points, so this is essentially Tenn -2, but really? Cincinnati looked as bad as almost any team last week (sorry, but St Louis takes the cake) and they are giving a point to a team that took down one of the Super Bowl favorites? I don’t get this. I know VY is hurt, but isn’t a football team better when they have a quarterback that is a threat to throw the ball? Doesn’t that give an offense balance? Isn’t Kerry Collins a wily veteran? Ok, that last one is bullshit, sorry. Either way, there is no way I can pick Cincy to win a game at this point. I don’t necessarily buy into Tenn yet, but Chris Johnson is a stud, and their defense is definitely solid. I don’t think Balt defense is that much better then the Titans D, and the Titans have a better offense then the Ravens, so I can’t imagine this game looking much different then last week for the Bengals.

Titans +1

You forgot to mention that Vince Young went crazy. Is their a more unstable guy in the NFL than Vince Young? He got like a 4 out of 30 on his Wonderlic test. The guy is a certifiable retard. Now he drove away from his home in a fit of sadness and brought a gun with him? He's nuts.

(On a tangent here: now the "big deal" was that he left his house without his phone. When did leaving the house without a cell phone constitute an issue? Are cell phones THAT important? I leave mine at home on purpose some days. Does that mean I'm crazy?)

The Titans do, however, have a better than than the Bengals. How much longer does Marvin Lewis have a job? I give him until week 12. They looked awful last weekend against the Ravens. I'm so happy I picked Carson Palmer in my fantasy league ... twice.

Titans +1

13. Baltimore @ HOUSTON (+4.5): Speak of the devil. Houston looked terrible, and I don’t want to jump to conclusions about the team but offensively, things aren’t going to get any easier this week. Granted, they are at home now, and Baltimore’s offense is not nearly as good as Pittsburgh’s. I also don’t want to jump to conclusions (if only I had a jump to conclusions mat, then I wouldn’t even have to do research) about Baltimore after beating one of the worst teams in the league, in my personal opinion. Baltimore is still lead by a rookie QB, and he survived week one at home against the terrifying Bengals defense, I don’t think he survives week 2 on the road.

Texans +4.5

I just can't trust a rookie quarterback two weeks in a row, but he'll probably prove me wrong twice in a row. Houston should not be able to move the ball very well against the Ravens though. This is a difficult game to pick for me for those two reasons. When's the last time a rookie quarterback started 2-0? But when was the last time he faced ninny-shits like the Texans and Bengals? I'm going with my gut here.

Baltimore -4.5

12. Miami @ ARIZONA (-7): Could the Cardinals get an easier start to the season? A road game against San Fran, and then a home game against the Dolphins. Well the Dolphins were more respectable then I thought they’d be in week 1, but the Jets are overrated. The Dolphins offense sucks, and I don’t know I think the Cardinals offense will be too much for them to handle. I basically think the Dolphins suck. I don’t like giving away 7 points on Arizona, but I have trouble visualizing the Dolphins keeping the game within a score on the road. The running game looked terrible and do you really think they are better then SF (at least SF at home and Miami on the road). I got to take the chalk at home in this one, even though I would rather take nothing at all.

Cardinals -7

I agree with you about the Jets; they're overrated and that's why the Dolphins could hang with them in week one. The 'Phins now go on the road to Arizona, who looked okay offensively against UC-Davis (oh, that was the 49ers?). The Dolphins have no one that can cover Larry Fitzgerald (see: Randy Moss's two TD's last season and Jericho Cotchery's TD last week). There's no way the Cardinals don't destroy Miami at home.

Cardinals -7

11. Green Bay @ DETROIT (+3): This seems a little too easy to me. Do people not trust Rodgers yet? Do they think Detroit will be that much better at home, or GB will be that much worse on the road? Based on last week’s results, this seems way to small of a line. I mean Detroit was EMBARASSED last week and GB had a nice showing in a win over a quality team. Based on last year, this line seems to small because GB is a solid team all around, and Detroit appears to have the worst defense in the league. I think I would take GB giving up 9 points, three is cake for me. I think Grant rushes for 150 and 2 scores.

This line gives me the impression that odds makers seem to think this will be a better game then the 11^th best of the week, I don’t.

Green Bay -3

That is a surprising line. If you told me to guess what it was, I'd say at least 6 and that's only because Green Bay was on the road. I'm not an Aaron Rodgers disciple yet, but he did play well on Monday night. In particular, I remember two passes. The first touchdown pass was very Favre-esque, but if you watch the replay, it was an excellently thrown ball. The second throw also went for a TD but was called back. So to do the math, Green Bay beat a potential playoff team and Detroit got abused by a team that could have the #1 pick.

Green Bay -3

10. Atlanta @ TAMPA BAY (-9): I am not too sure about this one. We all know Atlanta exceeded our expectations last week, but Matt Ryan didn’t have to do anything, where as a one dimensional offense will not succeed against Tampa. The line seems a bit large from the outset, especially with Garcia not playing. Tampa should have no trouble shutting down Atlanta’s offense, though, and if they can’t move the ball, the Bucs offense doesn’t have to do much to win by 10. This seems like an easy under to me, as Atlanta only threw the ball 13 times last week and we shouldn’t expect much different with a rookie QB on the road. On the other side, Brian Griese fills in as another one of those “veteran” QBs that completely discredits the term veteran all together.

I don’t know why Tampa would have a nice home field advantage when no one there cares, but they went 6-2 at home last year, and there is absolutely no reason for them to lose here. I would have thought that Atlanta would be over valued after last week, but 9 points is a lot. I’d obviously like this better if we got 10, but I think this game is close mostly because neither team is going to be aggressive. This game could easily be in the range of 16-10.

Atlanta +9

Again I have to agree. Matt Ryan isn't going to be asked to do much against a team as good as Tampa Bay. Wait, did I just call Tampa Bay "good"? That's as far as I'm going. Maybe I'll even reduce that to "above average." Last week, favorites over nine points were 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU. I can't go with this large of a spread in the second week. Do I see Tampa Bay winning the game 20-10? 17-7? Of course, but ten points for Tampa Bay, even when they won the SB, is too much.

Atlanta +9

9.New York Giants @ ST. LOUIS (+9): Both of these games are tough for me. I think this could be too many points for both of them. I thought St Louis would put up a better showing then that last week, but they looked miserable. The Giants looked good, all be it against a struggling Washington team and only really in the first half. This offense has the potential to be very good, if Eli is on his game. St Louis also has the potential to be good, but their offense never got in a rhythm. They have to protect Bulger, and the defense has to make tackles to keep this game close. I may change my mind a few times on this one, but I think I am going to take the points for the home team. I think the Giants were under valued last week and over valued this week. St Louis bounces back a bit, still loses, but by less then 10.

Rams +9

I have to say right now that before I went home from work today, I went to the liquor store and bought a 12-pack and began drinking on the way home. My reason? I needed to do these picks when I got home.I couldn't face the idea of writing about the NFL without a cold beer. What's the rule of drinking while driving? I mean, I'm not drunk. It's only one beer, right? The troopers should start to worry when they pull me over for throwing bottles out of my window like it's a dorm room in Abbey Hall.

The Giants did only look good in the first half, but they looked very much unlike Giants teams I remember. They were actually entertaining to watch. The Rams, on the other hand, didn't play one good quarter of football. In fact, it looked as if it was a varsity-jv scrimmage. I'm going back on my "no teams with high spreads covered last week" ideal and taking the spread. St. Louis, you're on the clock.

New York Giants -9

8. New Orleans @ WASHINGTON (-1): In the offseason, I liked Washington a lot to compete in the East, but after the preseason you could see that the offense just hadn’t figured things out yet. I changed my mind last minute and took the Giants last week and it paid off for me (no here in my picks) and I don’t think things changed this week. Jason Campbell has never inspired confidence in me, and with a new offense, he looks even worse. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team was very difficult to beat in the second half of the season, but they just don’t get their offense yet, and the defense will be much better when Jason Taylor is healthy. New Orleans looked good in their win over a quality bucs team, and I think they should do fine this week.

Washington was really tough against the pass last year, and won’t make it easy on Brees, especially without Colston. It will be interesting to see how the running game works out for the Saints and whether or not Deuce McAllister touches the ball at all. If he doesn’t, can Pierre Thomas take the bulk. I don’t think Reggie Bush is good unless there is another back pounding out the hard yards. I think that takes away from his big play ability, so if Pierre/Deuce can get something done up the middle, I think Reggie will break something off and the Saints offense will do enough to win against an sloppy Redskins O.

Saints +1

You're right. The Redskins aren't there yet. They are pretty good defensively and they have weapons on offense, but I don't trust any of them. Can Portis have a big game? Moss? Even Cooley? Of course they can, but they never seem to all put it together. Until that happens, a spread this small against a quality team seems like a sure bet.

It'll be interesting to see what the Saints do when they're pushed to be a little more one-dimensional on offense. They looked like the Saints of a couple years ago with their explosiveness and it looks like Reggie Bush has gotten his head out of Kim Kardashian's ass for long enough to reclaim some of the threat he had in college. I do believe he'll be a faster Thurman Thomas-type back in the NFL whereas he can spread the field and run the ball. It wouldn't surprise me if he went over 1,000 yards in receiving OR rushing eventually.

Saints +1

7. Chicago @ CAROLINA (-3): The bastard ass Panthers come home pretty high this week. Both of these teams won last week and both were 9+ dogs on the road. I am more surprised by Chicago then by Carolina because I thought Carolina would be tough, where as Chicago should not win on the road against Super Bowl contenders. Carolina ran the ball with ease last week, and that won’t happen against Chicago (it shouldn’t at least) but the DeAngelo Willimas and Jonathan Stewart combo could be pretty good this year. Delhomme was pretty flawless, and the defense did enough. Chicago shut down Indy’s offense, and score more points then I thought they’d have after week 3. I don’t think they will be able to run the ball like they did last week, and I don’t feel any better about the Bears as a whole then I did before they beat the Colts.

A 3 point line for the home team basically says all things are equal, give the home team the edge. All things are not equal. The Bears could have me as their QB and Oz as the starting wide receiver and the Panthers wouldn’t be any less intimidated. They stack the line and Forte gets stuffed over and over and the Panthers win this one easily.

Panthers -3

We are, however, very formidable threats on offense, so don't sell us short. However, since it's been 10 years since I started a football game (MUCH more on that tomorrow), I doubt I have the explosiveness I once had. My skills now are defined by bocce and darts.

You know what? In the preseason, I'm always high on Carolina, yet every time I come across a line, I can't get myself to bet on them and they always prove me wrong. From what I saw last weekend, the Panthers looked great, especially Delhomme when leading for the winning score in the final minute. They didn't panic and it looked like all of the players were on the same page. That says something for confidence in a quarterback (and each other). I like this Panthers team already.

Panthers -3

Stay tuned tomorrow for the top 6 games of the week.