Week 1 NFL Preview

Finally the NFL Season is upon us; welcome to the first week of NFL picks!! You ready, Clay?

Thursday

Washington at NYG (-3.5)

Oz: This could be the worst opening game in the history of the Thursday night opening game system the NFL put in. I understand these two teams are good teams. They both carry legions of fans on their backs and they’ve been around since the inception of the league. I understand all these things, but I can’t shake what a boring style of football both of the squads play. Of course, I will watch and I will cringe when they hoist the Super Bowl XLII banner to the rafters. It might even make me start drinking.

The Giants are defending champions, but the NFC East is wide open. Literally any team in the division could make the playoffs. This should be a close game. But the defending champs, despite the injuries to their defense, should be up for the task with the emotions from the Super Bowl win providing the boost.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Washington

Clay: We talked about this last weekend and were on the same page. I feel like the annual Thursday opener was Indy vs New England. What’s wrong with that? Until one of those teams fails to maintain as a top team in the league, keep it coming, it is a classic every year. I guess its all about the Super Bowl champion playing on that first day. Too bad the Super Bowl champ is boring as hell. This division is pretty much on reserve for Dallas, but one of the wild cards will come from here and three teams are competing for that spot. Washington in any other division would be one of my picks for the playoffs, but I am not sure about this one.

NYG should be playing with some emotion at home after raising the banner, but I still don’t buy into Eli Manning, and I am not sure if the defense will be able to pressure the qb without both of the their defensive ends from last year. Then again, that QB is Jason Campbell. I think this offense is better then last year, and the defense will continue to be effective. In a game this close, I have to take the points, at least when its more than 3.

Washington +3.5

Sunday

Tampa Bay at N.O. (-3)

Oz: The 2007 New Orleans Saints were like the girl who was really hot in high school then went away to college. You go back to your hometown and are all, “oh, is so-and-so going to be at the party? She’s hot. I’m gonna get on that train.” Then she walks in after gaining about 35 pounds. Now, a year later you’re thinking, “well, maybe she got her shit together.” Only time will tell. My hopes are that the Saints got their shit together.

I’m a little concerned they’ve been displaced; are they playing in New Orleans or somewhere else? This pick may change, but for now I’m taking the points. Tampa is pretty solid.

Tampa Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS

Tampa is solid, and they are playing in New Orleans. This is another tough pick, two solid teams that will compete for the division. This division is pretty wide open too, between these two and the Panthers. I don’t think the defense will be much better, but I think the offense has slimmed down. Deuce’s health is key to this team winning, and I don’t think he is there.

Here is what I am thinking though. 2007 they came back after a hurricane ripped the city apart and they kicked everyone’s ass. Last year, no hurricane issues. Well this year, Gustav came in with just enough fury to give the city and team the boost they needed. The year of the Hurricane!

Really, though, this team is explosive enough to score on TBs defense, and more so then their defense will let up against the conservative offense.

Saints -3

St. Louis at Philly (-7)

Oz: This seems a little high for an opening line game for two teams we’re not entirely sure of. Philly could be a contender for the NFC crown. They might also not even make the playoffs given their division. St. Louis crapped the bed last year, but they also had a string of injuries to guys like Orlando Pace and Steven Jackson, two of their best players.

St. Louis (+7) over PHILADELPHIA

Two teams that had poor years last year that can mostly be blaimed on injuries. Philly plays in the better division too, but that has nothing to do with this game. St Louis should play better on offense, but so should Philly. The Eagles definitely have the better defense, and I would say the offenses are pretty equal in explosiveness. Philly is usually really tough at home, but can they win by more than a TD?

People will argue both sides, but I would say more people argue that favorites are better in the first few weeks. Both sides will agree, however, that they are the best weeks to find uneven lines because the oddsmakers don’t know enough yet, either. This game is tough for me because I like both of these teams to improve this year and be contenders (at least for the playoffs). I am going to have to go with the home team that has the better defense. They have an offense that can score enough to cover a one td line. Lets put it this way, I decided to start Kitna vs Atlanta instead of Bulger vs Philly.

Eagles -7

NYJ at Miami (+3)

Oz: The Dolphins haven’t gotten any better and, I hate to say it, but the Jets are looking pretty strong. Acquiring Brett Favre, despite him being 45 years old, is only going to improve them. What people are forgetting is that the Jets have a young, strong offensive line and a talented running back (Thomas Jones), who underachieved last season. I’m expecting a big enough year out of him that I drafted him in both of my fantasy leagues. Having Favre as a weapon provides him with the opportunity to shine, or never, ever be drafted again.

Jets (-3) over MIAMI

This line is easy for me. Miami will lose to almost everyone this year no matter where the game is. This is a great starting game for Favre and the Jets. They are playing against the QB they tossed in the garbage. The Miami offense won’t do much against anyone, and the Jets do enough to win this game. I wont take a team +3 unless I think they will win, and this team won’t.

Jets -3

K.C. at N.E. (-16)

Oz: I believe Tom Brady will play this weekend, but it’s not enough to sway me on this spread. The Patriots, I guarantee, will try to bring Brady along slowly (he didn’t play one preseason game because of a foot injury) and balance the offense for week one against the Chiefs. If Matt Cassell is the starter, which he may be, the game will be even closer.

I’m slightly concerned about the run defense, but a good showing against Larry Johnson will push me in the right direction. The Patriots win, but not by three scores.

Kansas City (+16) over NEW ENGLAND

I think I agree with you here, except that you shouldn’t be swayed by their job against LJ considering the line is garbage and he averaged like 3 yards per carry in the preseason (I know you can base judgement on preseason) but his ypc has dropped each of the last three years.

Last year the Patriots lines could not be high enough, each of their games was like a college line. Then at the end of the year, the odds makers caught up with them, and the other teams did as well. I think teams will learn a bit from how teams stopped the Patriots offense in the playoffs and they won’t blow teams out like last year. Then again, this is the Chiefs. They also have nothing to prove like the eff you season of last year, and they will go about their business from the start. I think we get the normal Belichick back who does just enough to win each week, and the oddsmakers get all their money back from last year.

Chiefs +16 (thought this was 16.5)

Houston at Pitt (-6)

Oz: You know how sometime you hear how good someone or some team is but you never really see it? That’s how I feel about the Steelers. I understand their success; the numbers don’t lie, but I’ve never seen them beat a quality foe. Sure, the AFC Championship game against Indianapolis a couple years ago was solid, but it was more about the Colts beating themselves. They beat SEATTLE in the SB. I just don’t see it. Fortunately for the Terrible Towel-Heads, they open up against one of the worst teams in the AFC. See what I mean?

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Houston

It’s hard to say Houston is one of the worst teams in the AFC. I think they are a solid .500 club, maybe one game under. Then again, the AFC is very good which puts them in the bottom half. Pitt has always been a good home team, and I disagree with you that they have never beaten anyone good. They have been a top tier team in the AFC for a decade now, and you don’t do that by only beating crappy teams. Chicago was a top tier team in the NFC for two years by beating shitty teams, and that ended abruptly last year. This Steelers team will score, with lots of weapons. They have two solid running backs now with the addition of Mendenhall, and Santonio Holmes could show he is an elite receiver in his second year. The defense is most always an asset, and this year should be no different. The linebackers will blitz a lot and put a lot of pressure in the backfield. Houston is good, but they won’t win this one, and one touchdown should be no problem

Steelers -6

Cincy at Balt (+1)

Oz: The Bengals are capable of scoring 30 points on any given Sunday afternoon, but they are also liable to allow 35 points. Luckily, it may be week 4 before the Ravens score 35 points for the season. How long before the turmoil settles down in Cincinnati? Carson Palmer and his corps of wideouts should be in solid form. If they can get the ground game going, they could be a formidable team to face in the AFC North.

Cincinnati (-1) over BALTIMORE

They could be a tough foe at any point because their offense is so dangerous, but I think too much is going on. Chad Johnson is not healthy, Chris Henry is not eligible, and Carson Palmer isn’t exactly 100% either. Baltimore definitely has something to prove this year, and the defense should be closer to 06 form then 07. This matchup a month from now in Cincy is a different story, but I don’t trust anything going on in Cincy right now, and the Ravens have a lot of pride and a lot to prove. I don’t think they do that well because their offense is subpar, but they should have enough to beat a pretty horrendous looking Bengals team at this point.

So who is the first Bengals player to get arrested or shot, and how long does that take? Week 2?

Ravens +1

Detroit at Atlanta (+3)

Oz: This is another year that I don’t see Atlanta doing very well at all. I think we talked about them being the worst team in football and we’re more than probably right. It’ll be nice to see how Matt Ryan responds to getting the starting nod. I like what Atlanta is doing in that they’re not rushing their team along. They’ve got young blood and it’ll be a few years before they start gelling, but they’re doing the right thing.

I like the Rudi Johnson signing in Detroit. (Apparently Tatum Bell just liked his luggage) He’ll help Kevin Jones become a better back. Johnson has some durability questions, but splitting time will be beneficial to his health. He’ll also benefit from a pass-happy offense. Calvin Johnson should be ready for a big year.

Detroit (-3) over ATLANTA

I agree with everything here, and there isn’t much to add. I am not as sold on Calvin Johnson being a star yet as everyone else seems to be, but I don’t doubt that he improves and has a solid year. There is so much hype around this guy, and I have to see it before I will believe it. Meanwhile, Paul Oliver, who shut CJ down in college is eligible this year for the Chargers, and I think he makes the secondary even stronger this year. I think the Chargers have never had a good secondary in the history of the franchinse, at least not in my lifetime, and that excites me….I’ll hold off till later in this guy for more.

Lions -3 (or -7)

Seattle at Buffalo (-1)

Oz: Buffalo is getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers here, huh? The defending NFC West champs are getting a point against a team that went 7-9 last season? Unless the Bills defense is to improve greatly, the Seahawks shouldn’t have a problem moving the ball at all. Buffalo is one of those “sexy – we might make the playoffs” teams, but I don’t see that happening this season. They’re talented, but they won’t do much as long as their in the AFC.

Seattle (+1) over BUFFALO

The defense was good last year, but not dominant. They won games when the defense could shut down a shitty offense and their O did just enough. Here comes Seattle with a one dimensional offense (sorry, not buying Julius Jones) and an injury depleted WR core. Their defense has always been good, and should continue to be such. I would love the under here, picking a winner is more difficult. The Bills were tough at home, but they still didn’t beat a team with a winning record at home once. In fact, the only team they beat all year with a winning record was Washington, 17-16.

I seem to give Seattle a lot less respect then most people. I like how you throw in “the NFC West Champions” like that is a big accomplishment. Congratulations, when compared to the Cardinals, 49ers and Rams last year, you were the best. I think the Rams give them a run this year, but the division is still terrible. None the less, Buffalo is a bit over rated from last year, and when a home team is a 1 point favorite, that usually means the other team is better.

Seahawks +1

Jacksonville at Tennessee (+3)

Oz: This should be another solid opening week match-up from the AFC South. Jacksonville is the favorite to grab a wild-card spot this season; expectations are high. (Speaking of which, wouldn’t you be pissed if you were on the Jags? It’s assumed the Colts, a team you play pretty well, will be winning the division? That’s crap.) I like David Garrard. He’s efficient, he takes care of the ball, and he wins ballgames. There’s no wonder he took the starting job from Leftowich and Grey last season. Good call, Jack Del Rio.

(Is there another white guy with a blatantly Spanish name in this league?)

I’m interested to see how Vince Young responds with a new tight end in Alge Crumpler. It could be a good fit seeing the Crumpler is used to playing – and being very productive - with a scrambling quarterback (Mike Vick). Tennessee, if they gel, could beat a lot of teams this season.

TENNESSEE (+3) over Jacksonville

Tennessee is one of those teams I don’t know what to expect from. I think last year, they won a lot of close games, and if they won, it was only because their defense made it possible. I don’t see the offense being any better this year, and I don’t have faith in Vince Young as an NFL starting QB. I am not saying it isn’t possible, I just don’t think he is a good enough passer to be a threat to run the ball. I guess him and Vick have that in common too.

Jacksonville is screwed to be in the same division as the Colts, and they are a sexy pick this year. This should be a pretty low scoring affair, but the truth of the matter is that Jacksonville is just too well rounded to get beaten by a team that is one dimensional. The Jags D should be able to keep Tenn from running the ball, and I don’t see them scoring much at all. Meanwhile, Garrad should be able to get them downfield enough to win by a 6-10 points.

I’m buyin’ the hype, and I don’t trust Tenn, I think they squeaked out their playoff spot last year by beating only the teams worse then them, and Jacksonville is not.

Jaguars -3

Dallas at Cleveland (+5.5)

Oz: This could be the best game of the weekend. The Browns are everyone’s sleeper pick, which doesn’t make them a sleeper, it makes them one of the favorites. They’ve got a good quarterback (who needs to prove last year wasn’t a product of “who the fuck is Derek Anderson?), top tier pass-catchers (the addition of Dante Stallworth is huge), and a defense architected by Romeo Crennell. I like what they’re doing in the Dawg Pound.

On the other hand, Dallas is a perennial favorite in not only the conference, but the league. There are many “experts” and fans who believe Tony Romo and Terrell Owens are ready to lead this team to the Vince Lombardi trophy. The Cowboys defense is excellent with two very good cornerbacks in Adam Jones and Terrence Newman. Intriguing game here. But Cleveland was 7-1 at home last season SU.

CLEVELAND (+5.5) over Dallas

Damn, I forgot how many games there are every week. We need to start this earlier next week, this Thur game is killer. This is a fun first week matchup. I am not sure if Cleveland deserves as much love as they are getting, but I do think they are solid. I don’t think either team will have too much trouble scoring in this game.

Here is who the Browns beat last year in their surprise season: Cincy, Balt, Miami, St Louis, Seattle, Hou, NYJ, Buff, and SF. Not a lot of power there. Pitt was the only team to beat them at home, and it was the first week of the season. I don’t know about this one. Fortunately Dallas is just as hyped as the Browns are this year, so the line I probably in a pretty good spot. I am going to have to take the home dog that went 7-1 ATS last year.

Browns +5.5

Carolina at S.D. (-9.5)

Oz: Does anyone really know what to make of Carolina after the last three seasons? Jake Delhomme was playing great until he got hurt, their running game has been solid, and their defense has been inconsistent. I can’t make any guesses as to how their going to be. I want to say they’re a shoe-in for the playoffs, but I want to say they can’t compete with the top teams in their conference either.

San Diego, on the other hand, is one of the best teams in the NFL. In Norv Turner’s second year, I’m expecting the offense to be a little more fluid, which is a scary thought seeing how they have the best running back in the game and played in the AFC Championship. Against the Panthers, the Chargers make a statement. Will Merriman play?

SAN DIEGO (-9.5) over Carolina

I agree, of course, and I think they start much better this year then last seeing as how they have now had a full year with their head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator. I think Merriman is an idiot for playing, but I think they defense will still be solid without him. Jamal Williams is the key to this defense, and if he is healthy, I don’t see Carolina doing much. They have solid receivers, but no Steve Smith in this game.

Delhomme is one of those guys that tends the throw the ball up for grabs, and with this defense I don’t think they can do it. Cromartie over under for INTs in this one is 1.5. Bam!

Chargers -9.5 (10 would be a tough decision, 9.5 is not)

Arizona at S.F. (+3)

Oz: Didn’t these two teams play on Monday Night Football to open the season last year? Did anyone care then besides that it was opening night on MNF?

Waiting for the Cardinals to be good is like waiting at the DMV. You sit and wait … and sit and wait … and then say, “Screw this, I’m going home.”

Arizona (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO

And then some foreign guys asks you to fill out his application for an ID because he barely speaks English let alone has the ability to write it. Maybe they doesn’t cross over to the football analogy very well. Either way, I for one don’t give a shit in this game. Martz will not make this offense better, especially not right away. The defense is ok, but with the Arizona offense healthy, they should be able to pull this one out. I like Hightower as a little support for the aging Edgerin James, and I don’t like much of anything in SF. I don’t have a lot of faith they win, but I don’t care enough to look further into this one. I won’t be betting it.

Cardinals -3

Chicago at Indy (-9.5)

Oz: Not a good time to be an Indianapolis fan. Does anyone have any idea how Manning’s knee is? With that said, I do think he is on the field Sunday night against the Bears. What he missed, though, was practice time getting in sync with Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Dallas Clark. I don’t think that’ll take too long to happen once he’s back at 100%. It’s just a scary thought that he isn’t STARTING at 100%. That’s never a good sign.

On the Bears side, they’re starting Kyle Orton. Yup, Kyle Orton. And a running back named Matt Forte. Do the Colts win by two scores at home against this team? Absolutely.

INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) over Chicago

Is this the Sunday night game? What crap!

I am scared if I have Peyton on my fantasy team this year, and I would be nervous as a Colts fan too. His injury seemed a little bit scary, and with the loss of Saturday, things look even worse. Have you ever seen Peyton under pressure? Yeah, he gets happy feet and throws the ball to Antonio Cromartie. Well, he isn’t playing, but the Bears D is pretty formidable. I wish this line was a bit higher because I may think about taking the Bears, but if Peyton is playing in any condition, I don’t see this being close. Colts D will shut down a shitty Bears O, and the Colts will score three or four times, enough for a 10 point cover.

Colts -9.5

Monday

Minnesota at Green Bay (-3)

Oz: Could be a rough outing for Aaron Rogers in his first start at Lambeau Field against the Vikings defense. This will most likely be a low-scoring affair, but in a game with unproven passers, a bettor has to look at the trenches. I’ll take Peterson over Ryan Grant.

The Lambeau fans are not going to be happy.

Minnesota (+3) over GREEN BAY

What a way to start Monday Night Football. I am so looking forward to this game and the division battle between these two teams. I think you have a great point ignoring the QBs and looking at the running backs. Problem here is both team’s defenses specialize in stopping the run. I would take Aaron Rodgers (and his receivers while we are at it) over Tavaris, and at Lambeau Field to boot. I can’t bet against the Pack at home. They need to win this game because winning at Minnesota later in the year will be tough.

I think the key to this game is how Rodgers feels, and I will be able to tell you after the first series what is going to happen. Unfortunately we don’t have that luxury. Will Tavaris be any more comfortable playing at Lambeau then Aaron? Will Jared Allen eat Aaron Rodgers? Minn Scored 16 points total in two games vs GB last year. Both teams will struggle to score, but I have to go with the home squad here with all else equal.

Packers -3

Denver at Oakland (+3)

Oz: We both agree that no one in Denver is excited about this upcoming season, just like we both agree that the Raiders are going to be much better. I drafted Kirk Morrison for my defensive player in my fantasy draft (yes, having a defensive player on a fantasy team is really dumb), and he’s the shit (no, Steve Fischer, I didn’t say “he isn’t worth shit”).

OAKLAND (+3) over Denver

This doesn’t count as Monday Night Football for me, especially after that game, and you better not have said he isn’t worth shit. I hate this game, because Denver is so hard to predict. It is hard to imagine them being bad for very long, but it is also hard to find a reason to expect anything different. Last year, snuck out a win in Buffalo that they had no business winning. Neither QB is good, and the Raiders actually have a very good running game, something the Broncos had a hell of a time stopping last year. I am not sure Oakland has a “good” year, but I am pretty confident the Broncos don’t, and I think this matchup favors the Raiders because they should be able to run the ball, and the defense is good enough to shut down a supbar offense on the other side.

Raiders +3…I like them to win straight up too