Saturday, September 20, 2008

Top 5 games of the week


Aaron Rodgers squares off against the Dallas Cowboys in our top game of the week

The following are the most intriguing games of week 3 in the NFL. Oz in black, Clay in blue.

5. Car @ MInn (-3.5)

Carolina is 2-0, Minnesota is 0-2. A pesky team with a knack for winning vs. a tough team with a knack for losing tough games. Seems like an easy pick. I may be inclined to move this game up to first if we were doing a "most intriguing game of the week." The Panthers never lost faith and overcame a 14-point deficit to win 20-17; Minnesota couldn't punch the ball into the endzone even once in five tries inside the 30 yard line against the Colts. I thought after I heard the Colts ended up winning, "shit, if the Vikings can put it together and actually score touchdowns they are going to be tough to beat." Think about it. If the Vikings go up 14-0, continue to play great defense (can we call the defense against GB "great"?), and just pound the ball with the best back in football, they'll win lots of games. Then, they decide to put Gus Frerotte at quarterback for the rest of the season.

We've been doing these picks now for three years; we've been watching football together for about eight season now. Every time I type Gus Frerotte's name, I think it may be the last time. Yet, he's proved me wrong every year. I don't agree with this move at this critical juncture. The Vikings need to win this game. Can Frerotte take them over the edge of being on the brink of a top contender or keep them as a possible playoff team? I'm convinced the Vikings won't be a playoff team if they lose this game.

Carolina (+3.5)

Gus Ferotte, I had to type it too, and they answer is yes, and no I guess. He is not the answer and I think they could be done. Terrible move. At least Jackson was a threat to run the ball, and got some first downs with his legs. They have a great run defense and a very good overall defense, possibly the best back in the NFL, and they can’t win. Granted they had a tough schedule to start, but this isn’t any easier. Carolina should be able to shut the offense down by stacking the box and making Gus beat them. There probably won’t be much scoring here either. I can’t see Carolina getting much on the ground, but Steve Smith is back and this Panthers team seems to have that IT thing this year. Two come from behind wins so far against good teams (I can’t believe I am calling the Bears a good team) and this one won’t be easy, getting more then a field goal in a game they can win with little scoring is easy for me.

Oh yeah, and with the games on the schedule this week, 5 isn’t a bad ranking, all the shitty teams play each other and the good teams play each other, which makes for a tough betting week.

Carolina +3.5

4. NO @ Denver (-5.5)

I'm taking the over in this game. I'm also taking the points. I don't think the Broncos are a touchdown better than the Saints. I don't even care if they're playing at home.

New Orleans +5.5

I don’t know. No Colston worries me here. No one is going to play defense, and yes, the over should be easy. I really hope the Broncos aren’t good, but they look it so far. Is Cutler the real deal? Could this game easily come down to the last possession? I guess the truth is that neither team will be able to stop the other’s offense on the final drive, so you’re right, take the points. Can we figure out what is up with Brandon Marshall? Do you think he finished his best season ever last year, finally felt like a star and went out and tried to break as many laws as possible in the offseason? Does he get suspended for beating up a chick now? What an idiot.

New Orleans +5.5

3. Jax @ Indy (-5.5)

The changing of the guard is taking place in the AFC South. How does Indianapolis qualify as the south? I've driven through the city; it's not the south. The freaking highway is named after the r&b singer, Babyface. I wish I were making that up. What qualifies having a highway named after you? A couple crappy love songs? Why doesn't Bret Michaels from Poison have his own highway? What about John Denver? He was awesome! He won the country music award for newcomer of the year, for God's sake! You're telling me Peyton Manning doesn't know every one of his songs by heart? I'm pretty upset about this. There are so many people you could name a major highway after, Ted Williams, Frank Sinatra, Ernest Hemingway, and they picked Babyface. No wonder they can't stop anyone.

Jacksonville +5.5

How excited were you, coming from Boston, to see Ted Williams highway in San Diego, I think that kicks ass. There actually is a Hemmingway Highway in South Carolina, but I was disappointed to see that there is no such thing as the Bon Jovi highway, I mean he even has a song called Lost Highway. You think that was a hidden plea for someone to name a highway after him?

It is hard to say a changing of the guards is taking place when this new team you speak of is 0-2 and looks like crap so far. These teams are pretty close right now, but this game looked a lot better a month ago before everyone on both teams started getting hurt. The Jaguars offense has been pitiful with all of the O line injuries, and I don’t think Jerry Porter is gong to make the offense better this week. Luckily for the Jags, Bob Sanders is out AGAIN, and we all know that Indy can’t stop anybody without him, so the Jags should run free. Meanwhile, Jeff Saturday is back on the field, and this should give Peyton more time to throw the ball and subsequently match the points on the board. I do think these teams are pretty close, talent wise, though they are completely different types of teams. Without the injuries, I don’t know who I would take. For me, Sanders is the bigger injury and gives the Jags the ability to score and work the clock, which means I have to take the points.

Jags +5.5

2. Pitt @ Philly (-3)

How great was McNabb on Monday night? Spare me the fact they lost. His performance against the Cowboys was one of his best games of his career. Imagine if he had a weapon like Terrell Owens? Oh wait. My decision to take Brian Westbrook with the second overall pick in my East coast draft was the best fantasy decision I ever made. Well, until Adrian Peterson runs for 3,500 yards this season. The Cowboys game convinced me the Eagles can play with anyone in the league, despite how suspect (and old!) the secondary looked. Is it too early to call the Eagles the second best team in the league? They're only four points from being the best, in my opinion. I say they blow the Steelers out. How about this three-team, 10 point teaser, Philly +7, NYG -3, Pats -2.5?

PHILLY -3

That is a pretty solid teaser, though, this is the game I would be most worried about. Philly has looked awesome, but they haven’t played a worthwhile defense yet (yes, I think Dallas does not have a worthwhile defense). That being said, I think McNabb is a stud, and their offense is great. The Steelers have quite a task on their hands trying to stop them. Philly also has a defense that gets overlooked a lot. I think both of these teams are very well rounded, and it will be interesting to see which side of the ball wins out. I wouldn’t be surprised with a low scoring, grind it out game, or with a shoot out like on Monday night. I totally agree with this line because on a neutral field, I don’t know who to pick. Two different offensive styles; The Steelers punch it up the gut and the Eagles swing out and throw a lot of screens. I don’t think there is another franchise more known for blitzing then these two, so I think this one is fun to watch. This game to me is a total toss up, so I am going with the home team.

One other thought, does DeShaun Jackson play with a chip on his shoulder this week after his blunder last week? He may be a guy to watch this week, but I guess he is a guy to watch every week.

Philly -3

1. Dallas @ GB (+3)

What is this, 1996? I haven't been excited for a Packers-Cowboys game since the quarterbacks were Favre and Aikman. This will be the game that tests Aaron Rodgers' meddle. He has played well so far and this is by far his toughest test. I'm expecting the Cowboys to bring heavy pressure and make Rodgers beat them. At this point, however, Dallas looks like the top dog in the NFL. They have too many weapons offensively. We saw last weekend that even if the defense couldn't stop anyone that the offense can make up for it. They look awesome.

Dallas -3

I think both of these teams look awesome. GB has a very good defense, and Aaron Rodgers has shown he can get it done. The Cowboys game last year was when Rodgers had to come in and looked good. I think that was the turning point for me and a lot of other people in our opinions of Rodgers. I think he gets it done again vs a soft pass defense. The Cowboys are going to be tough for anyone to stop, and GB will have its hands full. There should be a lot of points again in this one. We are looking at the only home dog this week. That is insane, all day Monday, not one road team is favored. Well I am gonna take the home team. These are two of the top 5 teams in the NFL, and I think these teams are close enough that it comes down to home field. Stat of the week: Dallas has never won at Green Bay.

Green Bay +3 at the Tundra

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